The Performance of the Economy in Pictures

As we approach the end of the year, I think it is a good time review the performance of the domestic economy in 2019. Accordingly, this note focuses on the latest available data for key economic indicators, but for a change, the evaluation of this information will be conducted using as few words as possible. With first quarter 2019 GDP data being the latest available from the Central Statistical Office, recent trends in certain leading indicators will be assessed to gauge the strength of key sectors and thus, overall economy.

Energy Sector
As figures 1 and 2 below show, for the period for which data is available, both the production and prices of oil and gas trended down in 2019. This suggests that baring strong reversals late in the year, the sector may likely contract in 2019.

Figure 1: Energy Production

Source: MEEI

Figure 2: Energy Prices (US$)

Construction
Cement sales are normally a good barometer of the level of activity in the construction sector. Overall, cement sales expanded by 2.1 percent during the first three quarters of 2019, suggesting growth in the construction sector. The sector could be set to record its first annual expansion since 2014, depending on the out-turn for the fourth quarter.

Figure 3: Cement Sales (% Change)

Source: CBTT

Distribution (Trade & Repairs)
The sale of new motor vehicles (NMV) has proven to be a good gauge of activity in the distribution sector, which now forms part of the trade and repairs sector. Despite growth in the third quarter, NMV sales for all of 2019 is expected to decline, suggesting a still weak distribution sector.

Figure 4: New Motor Vehicle Sales (% Change)

Source: CBTT

Manufacturing
In the absence other leading indicators for the manufacturing sector, I have opted to use the demand for credit from the sector. After consistent declines, the demand for credit in the sector rebounded with two consecutive quarters of very strong growth starting in second quarter 2019. This may be indicative of improved confidence in the economy on the part of investors.

Figure 5: Manufacturing Loans (y-o-y % Change)

Source: CBTT

Credit Demand
Notwithstanding the challenges facing the economy, the demand for credit remains positive, with healthy growth in the three major components (Consumer, business and mortgages).

Figure 6: Credit Demand (y-o-y % Change)

Source: CBTT

Prices
Inflation remains within manageable levels, with the food price component, which has traditionally been the most volatile, subdued.

Figure 7: Inflation Rate (%)

Source: CBTT

Reserves
Against a backdrop of continued strong demand for foreign exchange and low energy sector revenue, the country’s foreign exchange reserves, represented by the net official reserves, maintained its downward trajectory in the first nine months of 2019.

Figure 8: Reserves

Source: CBTT

Public Finance
Government’s finances remain challenged, with persistent fiscal deficit, and rising debt.

Figure 9: Fiscal Balance ($mn)

Source: CBTT

Figure 10: Public Debt (% of GDP)

Source: CBTT

Based on the foregoing, it would be no surprise if the domestic economy registers another contraction in 2019, notwithstanding the encouraging developments in the non-energy sector. By the time full-year data becomes available, it is not expected to reveal any major improvement in reserves or government’s fiscal accounts.