The Tabanca Is Real – A Look at how a Carnival free year disrupted the economy

Trinidad Carnival, a tsunami of art, colour, costume and dance - known to be the biggest street party on Earth - was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic after is was described as “the perfect environment for the spreading of the virus” by Prime Minister, Dr. Keith Rowley.

The Prime Minister acknowledged that there would be inevitable economic consequences surrounding his decision, but just how much is that?

The fact is this cancellation has resulted in a significant loss of opportunity for businesses throughout the non-energy sector. Particularly hard-hit are the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), artistes, Mas bands and promoters that generate most of their yearly income from the grand festival.

By its nature, the Carnival season generates significant economic activity across several sectors including, entertainment, security, media, hospitality and retail, normally providing a boost for the domestic economy over a period of at least six weeks. According to a 2014 article by the Association of Caribbean States, “revenue from Trinidad and Tobago’s Carnival exceeds on average US$100 million”.

Indeed, the Carnival festival is the main draw for the domestic tourism industry, especially for Trinidad. In the month preceding the grand parades, hotel occupancy rates are at their highest across the island and as such the demand for ancillary services peaks.

According to the CSO, in January and February 2020, Trinidad and Tobago benefitted from a total of 78,148 tourist arrivals, while the average visitor expenditure for February was $12,101 over an average length of 12 days stayed.

Undoubtedly, it appears that Carnival is a significant driver of economic activity in Trinidad and Tobago. Unfortunately, not enough research has been done to fully understand the impact of the festival on the various non-energy sectors, the contribution to employment and the extent to which its revenue streams surmount government funding, if at all.

According to Jo-Anne Tull (2009), “In the context of the economics of carnival, tracking could focus on: the population of persons participating in carnival activities to discern the percentage share of the total population engaged in carnival celebrations and to determine the extent to which carnival is a nation-wide celebration; the population of persons purchasing mas costumes to determine the level of consumer preference for playing mas; the number of arrivals into Trinidad specifically for carnival to determine whether carnival constitutes another tourist season in the annual calendar; and the quantum of revenue accrued by other sectors of the economy.”

The task that remains is ensuring that researchers quantify Carnival in a way that allows the policymakers to put forth the most effective policy for the highest economic gain and to facilitate long term economic development because this festival gives us tabanca in more ways than one.